Rates Fell for the Fourth Week Straight — Should Houston Bay Area Buyers Jump In Now or Wait?

by Melanie Ehrlich

Mortgage rates just did something they have not done in a while: they fell for the fourth week in a row.

Freddie Mac reported today, November 12, that the average 30-year fixed rate dropped to 7.11% — down from 7.18% last week, and well below the 7.40% peak we saw in mid-October. It is the lowest rate in seven weeks. The 15-year fixed fell even faster, to 6.50%.

So the question I am hearing from buyers all over League City, Friendswood, Clear Lake, Seabrook, and Kemah is a fair one: Is this the moment to jump in — or should I keep waiting?

Here is my honest take.

THE SLIDE, IN ONE LOOK

Mid-October peak — 30-year fixed: 7.40%

Last week: 7.18%

This week — November 12: 7.11%

Source: Freddie Mac, reported November 12, 2026. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.50% this week.

Chart of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate slide: 7.40% mid-October peak, 7.18% last week, 7.11% on November 12

Four straight weekly drops is a trend, not a blip. But 7.11% is a dip, not a plunge — and that distinction matters for your decision.

WHAT THIS DIP IS WORTH IN REAL DOLLARS

Rates are abstract until you turn them into a monthly payment. On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest only:

7.40% — October peak: $2,770/month

7.18% — last week: $2,710/month

7.11% — today: $2,691/month

That is about $79 a month less than at the October peak — roughly $948 a year — for the exact same house and the same loan. It does not transform a budget, but it is real money, and it moves in your favor every week this slide continues.

Payments are principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan and do not include taxes, insurance, or HOA dues.

SO — JUMP IN, OR WAIT?

The case for moving now:

You are buying at the lowest rate in seven weeks, after four straight weeks of improvement.
If you find the right home at a payment that works today, you are not betting on a forecast — you are locking in numbers you already know.
If rates keep falling after you buy, refinancing is an option. If they rise, you will be glad you did not wait.

The honest case for caution:

Forecasts for 2027 do not see a big drop coming. If you are waiting for rates in the 5s or low 6s, the outlook does not support planning your life around that.
A dip can reverse. One strong inflation or jobs report can push rates back up, which is exactly how we got the October peak.
A lower rate does not fix the wrong house or a stretched budget. The payment has to work at today's rate, not at the rate you hope for later.

For sellers and move-up buyers: a four-week slide is the kind of news that brings sidelined buyers back into showings. If you have been thinking about listing in the Houston Bay Area, improving rates are a tailwind — your buyer pool grows as payments shrink.

MY BOTTOM LINE

Do not try to time the market perfectly — nobody rings a bell at the bottom. If the home is right and the payment works at 7.11%, this is a genuinely better moment than a month ago, and there is no strong forecast saying a much better one is coming.

Want me to run the real numbers on a home you are watching? Call or text me at 979-652-5122, email HomesWithMel@gmail.com, or find me at HomesWithMel.net. I will show you exactly what today's rate does to the payment — no pressure, just the math.

— Melanie Ehrlich, Realtor®, Real Broker, LLC — serving League City, Friendswood, Clear Lake, Seabrook, and Kemah